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The Healthy Hog Blog Lets talk some shit Stagflation? More like Devastation-flation…FACE! leave a comment » Down we go... What the fuck is stagflation? It’s a circumstance in which the unemployment rate and inflation rate are persistently high. What the fuck does that mean? It means that during a period in which millions of Americans remain unemployed, the prices of goods and services (ie, the cost of living) grow at an ever increasing rate. Wait, what? I don’t fucking get it! Take it easy! No need to fret, I’ll break it down for you. Essentially, while our collective take home pay stays the same or decreases (a sign of a slowing economy) the cost of shit we need increases (a sign of inflation). Bummer, right? Inflation is a boogie man you can’t hide from; He’s climbing in your windows, he’s snatching your people up. Even if you had all the money you would ever need in a bank account somewhere, it becomes worth less when inflation kicks in (note I didn’t say “worthless”, this isn’t a call to overthrow the gov’t or to arm yourself, move to Montana and await the pending insurrection). As the real cost of living increases and the availability of good paying jobs decreases, we enter an economic death spiral. Usually, we combat inflation by increasing short term interest rates. This decreases the money supply and, effectively, increases the buying power of each dollar in circulation. However, this also tends to slow economic growth and retard the rate at which employers create new jobs. Conversely, during times of stalled economic growth we typically lower interest rates. This increases the money supply and spurs employers to invest in new facilities and an expanded workforce, however, the prolonged abundance of cheap money also acts to decrease the buying power of our dollars. And round and round we go…that’s Stagflation. We don’t want to hurt our economic recovery by raising interest rates but keeping rates low will only help usher in ever growing rates of inflation. We’re fucked! We’re not headed towards a period of stagflation, are we? I mean, the stock market is doing great. Isn’t that a good sign? First off, the unemployment rate has remained over 9% for 21 months and it isn’t showing any signs of roaring back to life soon. Not good. Turmoil in the middle-east (Egypt) could cause a spike in oil prices, especially if the Suez canal is closed for an extended period of time. This would serve to increase the real cost of living as most everything we buy at the mall and/or grocery store requires a petroleum based product in its production or transportation to market. Double not good! Looks like a recipe for stagflation to me… Concerning the stock market and its impressive rally back from an awe inspiring crash that caused trillions of dollars worth of wealth to evaporate into thin air in a couple short months, I say, “not so fast!” The Dow Jones and S&P 500 are up but that isn
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